Blog Entry

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

Posted on: April 25, 2011 2:37 pm

Posted by Matt Jones

This is not a new story, but with the NBA draft deadline having just passed and little happening in the post-Easter weekend sports world, I found it interesting. Two years ago, the blog sought to determine which schools were most overvalued and undervalued by the NBA in the draft process. The process for making the determination was by no means scientific. The author utilized only the past 20 years and by starting in 2009, the older players' careers and their longer careers were ultimately given more weight. Still, the methodology, while not perfect, was adequate for determining whether players from certain schools are more consistently over or under valued by NBA teams. 

The blog compared a players' career per-game average in points/rebounds/assists versus the average totals for other players who were also picked in the same slot in those 20 NBA drafts. A per-game comparison (as opposed to a per-minute method) is not a good way to evaluate an individual player, but it is a decent method for an enterprise such as this, which is seeking to make a macro judgment about a larger pool of players. After determining the difference from the average person selected at the same pick, a particular player would be categorized as either a star, role player, etc and then rated versus the other colleges. Only schools with five or more players were ranked in the total school comparison.

Amongst all teams, these ten schools were ranked as the most consistently undervalued by NBA teams (number of NBA picks during selected period in parentheses):

1. Wake Forest  (7)

2. UTEP   (5)

3. Marquette (7)

4. Xavier  (8)

5. Clemson (6)

6. Kentucky (15)

7. Alabama (13)

8. Depaul (6)

9. Purdue (6)

10. Pittsburgh (6)

In a bit of a surprise, Wake Forest took the top spot, thanks in large part to the three superstars it has produced, Tim Duncan, Chris Paul and Josh Howard (who is a superstar relative to his No. 29 overall draft status). Spots 2 and 3 are taken by UTEP and Marquette, both of which are helped in large part by having produced Tim Hardaway and Dwayne Wade. What is most striking is that, with the exception of Kentucky, none of the top 10 are traditional powerhouse schools, showcasing that the NBA is very likely to undervalue many second-tier programs, just as most fans do as well.

Here is the list of the most overvalued programs in the NBA draft:

1. Louisville (11)

2. Vanderbilt (5)

3. Colorado (5)

4. Gonzaga (5)

5. Indiana (13)

6. Mississippi State (6)

7. NC State (9)

8. Missouri (9)

9. Iowa  (10)

10. Texas Tech (5)

During the 20 year period studied, Louisville had the most players consistently overvalued by the NBA. Pervis Ellison, Samaki Walker, Reece Gaines, Felton Spencer and Cliff Rozier were all picked in the lottery during this period and none averaged more points than the average player picked at their position. Also disappointing is Indiana, which produced few top players during the end of the Bob Knight era and has seen its overall status as a program drop during the same period.

Finally, the blog ranked the top powerhouse programs based upon NBA draft performance as well. Because a school that produces only five players in 20 years can have its status changed by one high profile star or bust (see Marquette with Wade or Gonzaga with Adam Morrison), the higher sample size makes this a bit of a better comparison. Here was the ranking of top programs with 15 or more players selected during the 20 year period:

1. Kentucky (15)

2. Michigan  (16)

3. Connecticut  (21)

4. Arizona  (28)

5. UCLA  (26)

6. Syracuse (15)

7. Georgia Tech (19)

8. Michigan State (16)

9. North Carolina (22)

10. Maryland (16)

11. Texas (16)

12. Kansas (22)

13. Duke (28)

Amongst the programs with the most picks in the draft, Kentucky players have been the most consistently undervalued. The production by players such as Jamaal Magloire, Tayshaun Prince, Chuck Hayes and Rajon Rondo from low draft spots, places Kentucky at the top of the list. The biggest surprise of the list (with the exception of Georgia Tech having 19 players drafted during that period) is the school at the bottom of the list, Duke. The Blue Devils are the most overvalued group of players in the NBA draft by a substantial margin, with the greatest number of players performing below the average player at their position. Also interestingly, North Carolina's players are valued exactly at the correct point according to the scale. With the 22 players the Tar Heels have produced for the NBA during that period, their final NBA production has been exactly average for any player picked at their positions.

What does all this mean? Probably not much. Potentially NBA teams should consider Brandon Knight or Deandre Liggins a few picks higher or Kyrie Irving a couple of picks lower. But probably what it does mostly is give college basketball fans something to argue about during the offseason. And that in and of itself is productive.

Since: May 1, 2011
Posted on: May 4, 2011 2:18 pm

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

there is no value in the University of Kentucky.

Since: May 1, 2011
Posted on: May 1, 2011 11:42 am

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

Matt Jones is hardly a reputable author on the subject. Objectivity is not a characteristic he possesses. loses all validity in posting articles or blogs by Matt Jones.

Since: Apr 27, 2011
Posted on: April 27, 2011 3:20 pm

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

Since: Apr 27, 2011
Posted on: April 27, 2011 2:27 pm

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

Lil' Matty Bangs - a UKant college BB wannabe - can't even write a coherent article without displaying his manic phobia of all things LOUISVILLE and DUKE.

First he presents  his own stats to justify a No. 1 ranking for UKant. Go figure - Bangs was rumored to collect the blue liquid from a Port-a-Let used by Calipari as a display for his Ukant shrine in his momma's basement. Odd that he never questions how with all of those "undervalued" athletes pouring thru UKant's program they have only managed a single Final Four accompanied by the ever present NCAA investigations - house of Ukant booster occupied by Cousin's family and mysteriously vacated when exposed by Lexington-Herald Leader; Eric Bledose's amazing string of A's from online courses from a student that had never rec'd a single A in a HS classroom; the payments to Orton's father to 'teach' at a UKant BB clinic; . . .

He then proceeds to Label UofL as the Most Overvalued Program in the Draft, by listing several players that suffered careeer ending/altering injuries.

But with his CARDINAL/Duke paranoia running rampant Matty Bangs does a 360 and states: "The Blue Devils are the most overvalued group of players in the NBA draft by a substantial margin, . . .".

I know it's difficult to hold a thought for 3 whole paragraphs Bangs, but which is it??? Is Duke or LOUISVILLE the most overvalued program in your deeply troubled Blew mind???

Since: Apr 6, 2010
Posted on: April 27, 2011 1:20 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator

Since: Apr 23, 2007
Posted on: April 27, 2011 9:27 am

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

I wouldnt normally consider Michigan to be a baseketball powerhouse considering their last 10 years of baseketball history, but i could see where they put some good players in the league over the last 20 years.  If you start back in 2009 and go back 20 years Michigan has put  in Glen Rice, Loy Vaught, Jamal Crawford, Juwan Howard, Jalen Rose, Chris Webber who could be considered stars or close to them.  Then looking at the other 10 players they put in who never acheived that great status...Michigan hasnt done horrible for themself. I just am not sure I would consider them to be a powerhouse program, unless the name makes them a powerhouse program

Since: Nov 28, 2008
Posted on: April 27, 2011 9:03 am

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

Georgia Tech, Michigan and Maryland are "powerhouse programs?"

Since: Apr 26, 2011
Posted on: April 27, 2011 12:41 am

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

Actually Smith recruited some great players.  He couldn't coach them.  Prince, Rondo, Mohammed, Patterson, Magloire, Hayes, etc. were all exceptional talents.  But Smith couldn't win the big games.  And just because you're crappy school thinks winning a high percentage is success it doesn't mean everyone does.  None of the top schools would have accepted the level of play Smith brought to Lexington.  He consistenly dropped out of the rankings, something I have never seen UK do any other time and I've been watching since the mid-60's, he couldn't even make the Final 4 much less win it all and his players never got along at all.  That's bad coaching.  People in Minn. are saying the exact same things about him BTW.  I have the links if you want to see them.

And Cousins is NOT a thug.  Name one thing he did that makes him a thug.  If you're really a UK fan you aren't a very good one.

Since: Feb 20, 2011
Posted on: April 26, 2011 10:55 pm

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

I wonder how many schools could put together a full team?  Duke would have Brand, Boozer, Deng, G. Hill, Maggette, Duhon, Reddick, McRoberts, Dunleavy, Battier, S. Williams, G. Henderson and D. Jones. 

UConn = R. Allen, Gay, Okafor, Villanueva, Hamilton, Gordon, H. Armstrong, C. Butler, AJ Price and Thabeet.

Zona = Frye, Arenas, Bibby, R. Jefferson, Budinger, Iguodala, Shakur, Terry, Walton and Bayless.

Kentucky = Bledsoe, Bogans, Cousins, C. Hayes, Magloire, Meeks, Mohammed, P. Patterson, T. Prince, Rondo and Wall. 

UCLA = Love, Westbrook, Afflalo, Ariza, M. Barnes, D. Collison, B. Davis, Farmar, Gadzuric, Holiday, R. Hollins, Kapono, E. Watson and Mbah a Moute. 

Since: Jul 27, 2009
Posted on: April 26, 2011 4:26 pm

Which schools are most overvalued in NBA draft?

And they all S'ed the bed playing for the Celtics! lmssao

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