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Blog Entry

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

Posted on: January 16, 2012 9:39 am
Edited on: January 16, 2012 10:08 am
 


By Matt Norlander

It was a long weekend — in a good way. But no time to dilly nor to dally. Let’s get to the tally. A few sentences before the rankings. You’ll notice the teams involved this week are the same from last week. There’s some jiggering in the standings, but that’s it.

For fans of teams not involved in the Pyramid, once more, here goes: the rankings are assembled only according to my chicken brain and involve a combination of 1) how good, in general, I think the team is at the second I post the Pyramid, 2) Has the team proven itself and gone against better teams than others? That plays a factor, as does a lack of good opponents, even if that’s in conference play. I know a lot of teams play in bad conferences, but I’m not going to continue raising their ranking if other teams are playing tougher opponents, losing the occasional game. Thirdly, this is not an AP or Coaches Poll. If you lose you don’t necessarily drop. If you win you don’t necessarily rise.

Finally, when it comes down to a “tiebreaker” of sorts, if all things are equal, I pick the team I think would win this afternoon in an empty gym somewhere in the middle of Vermont. The Peter King-ism of the Pyramid.   

I’m loving, and appreciating, the attention the Pyramid’s been getting, at least enough to make a number of your email/tweet your disagreements. You’ve been civil and I’ve been sad to see that. Let’s get inappropriately angry already.

Top Tier

1. UNLV (16-3). A Sentence:  I do not necessarily punish for losing close, on the road, against a tournament team who also happens to be in your conference. A Statistic: What does this mean to you? UNLV is undefeated at home, but 3-3 on the road. The Schedule: vs. TCU Wednesday; vs. New Mexico Saturday.

2. New Mexico (15-2). A Sentence:  Just take a look at the schedule and you’ll see that top of the Pyramid, or as low as 7 or 8, hangs in the balance this week. A Statistic: Uncommon amongst Pyramid teams — New Mexico last on Thanksgiving. The Schedule: vs. San Diego State Wednesday; at UNLV Saturday.

3. Creighton (16-2). A Sentence: Barring some real stinkers in the MVC, I don’t see how Creighton possibly falls out of the top five the rest of the way. A Statistic: I asked Patrick Marshall, who runs @wildjays, what his favorite stat about this team is. He offered up the fact Doug McDermott hit 1,000 points in 57 games. It took Creighton’s all-time leading scorer, Rodney Buford (’95-’99), 59 to do it. The Schedule: at Missouri State Wednesday; vs. Indiana State Saturday.

Ron Swanson Approves

4. Saint Mary’s (17-2). A Sentence: To put it simply: I didn’t think the Gaels had a shot to win 18 of their first 20 games, which they’ll do Thursday night. A Statistic: The Gaels are scoring 1.15 points per trip, which is good for No. 9 in the nation. Yes, very good, and so good that they’ve not finished this high in efficiency in the past decade — or more. The Schedule: vs. Pepperdine Thursday; at Santa Clara Saturday.

5. Murray State (18-0). A Sentence: Plenty think I’m anti-Murray State, and that’s simply not the case. A Statistic: The Racers have a 37.4 percent of finishing unbeaten in the regular season, according to KenPom.  My brain calculus says it’s about an even 50/50 of getting into the NCAAs unscathed. And I still don’t think they do it — BUT I WANT THEM TO DO YOU HEAR ME HATERS I AM ROOTING FOR THIS. The Schedule: at Morehead State Wednesday; at SIU Edwardsville Saturday.

6. San Diego State (15-2). A Sentence: After about 40 days of playing garbage competition, the Aztecs pull out a two-point win in Saturday’s most exciting game (against UNLV), officially making Steve Fisher a wizard. A Statistic: Most incredible aspect to SDSU’s win over UNLV was the glaring difference in offensive-rebound rate (40 to 20). UNLV had 19 second-chance opportunities; Aztecs had six — and didn’t even shoot better than 50 percent, effectively, from the field. The Schedule: at New Mexico Wednesday; vs. Air Force Saturday.

7. Harvard (15-2). A Sentence: It’s not that I’m down on Harvard, I’m just higher on the higher teams, who’ve been getting chances to prove more and win more definitively than the Crimson. A Statistic: Some more crowd-sourcing was done here. I asked John Ezekowitz, who helps run the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective blog, what his favorite Crimson stat is. He offered up a few, but this one’s great. The program has set, plus broken. its record for fewest points allowed in a half twice this year. Earlier this season it was just 14 allowed against Florida State, and on Saturday, Harvard held George Washington to 13. The Schedule: at Dartmouth Saturday.

8. Gonzaga (14-3). A Sentence: Gonzaga has notable wins, but look closer and you’ll see they’re not great — merely good. A Statistic: Robert Sacre reaches the foul line 93 percent of the time compared to the field goal attempts he has. That’s an incredible rate—third-best in this fine nation. The Schedule: vs. San Francisco Thursday; vs. San Diego Saturday.

9. Iona (14-4). A Sentence: Gaels did not mess around Sunday night, winning by 11 over Loyola (MD), who was playing with the MAAC conference lead on the line. A Statistic: Iona’s averaging 81.1 points per game, but in its four losses, that number falls to 75. Reduce possessions and reduce your risk — you’ve got a chance. The Schedule: vs. Manhattan Thursday; vs. Loyola (Maryland) Sunday.

10. Dayton (13-5). A Sentence: We do not overreact here and discriminate for one loss. A Statistic: According to BBState.com’s metrics, Dayton has the 10th-toughest schedule. But KenPom has it at 38. Seems too stark. The Schedule: vs. Xavier Saturday.

Base Blocks

11. Oral Roberts (16-4). A Sentence: Golden Eagles are already halfway (8-0) to going undefeated in the Summit. A Statistic: Dominique Morrison is in the top 10 percent in minutes played, offensive rating, usage, effective field goals and free-throw rate. Only Murray State’s Isaiah Canaan shares that distinction. The Schedule: vs. IUPU Fort Wayne Thursday; vs. Oakland Saturday.

12. Wichita State (15-3). A Sentence: While the rest of the Missouri Valley cannibalizes itself into a two-bid league, the Shockers have dodged all but a loss to tournament-bound Creighton. A Statistic: WSU’s opponents are only getting 24.1 percent of O-board chances, fourth-best in the country. The Schedule: at Northern Iowa Wednesday; vs. Southern Illinois Saturday.

13. Middle Tennessee State (17-2): A Sentence: Blue Raiders playing themselves into an awesome position, but I’m worried the committee isn’t going to value this team and will stick them with a 14. A Statistic: Blue Raiders have won all but four of their games by double digits. The Schedule: vs. Arkansas State Thursday; at South Alabama Saturday.

14. Temple (11-5). A Sentence: I want the mustache back, Fran Dunphy. A Statistic: Fran Dunphy has gone 102 days without a mustache. The Schedule: vs. La Salle Wednesday; vs. Maryland Saturday.

15. Saint Louis (14-4). A Sentence: I’ve been trending down on SLU and that continues this week; home against Duquesne likely means they’ll be in the 15 spot again next week. A Statistic: Billikens have been cheating KenPom.com’s rankings all season long. They’re currently sitting at 18, which is about 20 spots too high for my ignorant tastes. The Schedule: vs. Duquesne Saturday.

Roaming outside the Pyramid:

♦ Out this week: No one. In: No one!
♦ Three-loss non-BCS teams not in the Pyramid: Wyoming, Southern Miss, Wagner, Nevada, Cleveland State, Weber State. My guess is you’ll see three of those in the Pyramid in the next two weeks.
♦ I do not, nor will I ever, account for RPI. I love the emails, but you lovelies gotta stop referencing this unicorn stat. Kthxbai.
♦ And if you’d like to ever send me any worthwhile info or complaints about this, I encourage a follow on Twitter or emailing: matt.norlander@cbsinteractive.com.


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Comments

Since: Feb 25, 2009
Posted on: January 19, 2012 8:29 am
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

Once again, I glance at this thing and immediately regret it. Norlander knows nothing about basketball. And I'm gonna go ahead and call BS on his sentence about Murray.



Since: Oct 18, 2006
Posted on: January 19, 2012 1:45 am
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

Oopsy...your Lobos just got spanked in their own "Pit." Still think UNLV is the better team, even though San Diego State has had their number the past few seasons? Give respect when it's due. The Aztecs just beat two quality teams and should be at the top of the pyramis after this week. I'm just saying...



Since: May 11, 2007
Posted on: January 18, 2012 12:22 pm
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

UNLV was favored.



Since: Sep 6, 2009
Posted on: January 17, 2012 12:23 am
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

Interesting take on SDSU. I don't see any other team you have listed that has gone 3-5 against ranked schools. I'm sure you have your "reasons" or what some would call "biases". I'm curious to see how you spin it next week if SDSU beats your (unusally) high ranked Lobos. 



Since: Nov 25, 2007
Posted on: January 16, 2012 6:19 pm
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

Out of curiosity, what is unacceptable about SDSU not being moved up?  Ranked teams are supposed to win at home against other teams (ranked or not, unless there is a large disparity) and SDSU was favored going into that game.  Also, who should they have jumped for beating UNLV at home? Creighton and St. Mary's have played extremely well of late, Murray State is still undefeated, UNM hasn't lost since Thanksgiving (and play SDSU on Wednesday), and UNLV is still a better team than SDSU, regardless of the outcome of that game.
Also, if you want to use the UNLV game as a reason that SDSU should move up after a great game... I honestly think SDSU should have lost that game and got some beneficial non-calls from the refs that may have resulted in a 5 point swing.  That game was too close to say anything more than both teams played excellent basketball and SDSU pulled out the win.



Since: Jun 10, 2010
Posted on: January 16, 2012 5:55 pm
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

How is it possible that you have Creighton ranked in front of every team on the pyramid in your top 25 plus one (and don't even have New Mexico ranked) yet the Jays are behind two other teams? Not much logic there, not that it matters much. 

Here's hoping that St. Mary's and the Jays square off in the Bracket Buster.



Since: May 11, 2007
Posted on: January 16, 2012 5:25 pm
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

I agree it was an acceptable loss by UNLV but it was also a great win for SDSU and yet the Aztecs remained at 6th in the Non-BCS Power Pyramid Poll.  That is unacceptable.



Since: Aug 31, 2006
Posted on: January 16, 2012 5:03 pm
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

Ranked UNLV lost at Ranked SDS on a shot with 0.3 seconds on the clock at SDS.  Acceptable loss.



Since: May 11, 2007
Posted on: January 16, 2012 2:41 pm
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

As stated by you in Week 6, UNLV vs SDSU would be your wake-up game. Yet, it looks as if you have remained asleep not taking anything away from UNLV for losing while not giving the Aztecs any credit at all for winning your wake-up game.  Explanation please.



Since: Feb 6, 2010
Posted on: January 16, 2012 1:32 pm
 

Non-BCS Power Pyramid, Week 9

If you had a chance to see the Murray State Tennesse Tech game you could see some chinks in Murray's armour. If anyone can beat Murray it wouldl be Tech at Home agaist Murray, but I wouldn't beat the farm. They will have Ivan Aska back. The Racers have too many guys that can beat you. This has been so fun for Racer fans. Thanks for all of the support from other schools!


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