When I pick a game that is so off, it makes me realize that I'm no expert. I picked Tulane +10 at Duke. The Green Wave were never in it, losing 48-27. Please keep this in mind, if you're playing my suggestions.

Please, don't bet the house and don't try to get it all back in one swoop. That's the biggest mistake by any gambler and why the house easily makes money.

I did go 2-1 in my top plays, however, nailing the over in Florida-Kentucky and winning on K-State, which beat Miami as a 12-point underdog. That makes me 7-5 on the season.

Against the experts, I was 11-6. Jerry Hinnen leads the group with an astounding 50-27 mark. I'm second among the experts at 46-31.

I need to admit I didn't study as much this week with the Jewish holiday starting Wednesday night.

On to Week 5

SATURDAY
No. 16 South Florida -2.5 at Pittsburgh
Minnesota +20.5 at No. 19 Michigan
At No. 24 Illinois -6.5 vs. Northwestern
No. 14 Texas A&M -3.5 vs. No. 18 Arkansas (At Arlington)
Kentucky +29.5 at No. 1 LSU

At No. 4 Boise State -27.5 vs. Nevada
At N.C. State +11.5 vs. No. 21 Georgia Tech
Auburn +10.5 at No. 10 South Carolina
Bowling Green +20.5 at No. 22 West Virginia
No. 15 Baylor -3.5 at Kansas State

At No. 20 TCU -11.5 vs. Southern Methodist
No. 13 Clemson +7.5 at No. 11 Virginia Tech
No. 17 Texas -10.5 at Iowa State
Ball State +37.5 at No. 2 Oklahoma -37.5
No. 3 Alabama -5.5 at No. 12 Florida

No. 8 Nebraska +9.5 at No. 7 Wisconsin
At No. 25 Arizona State -17.5 vs. Oregon State
At No. 6 Stanford -20.5 vs. UCLA

---------------------------------
TOP HANDICAP PLAYS (All games Saturday)
Cincinnati -14.5 at Miami (Ohio)
OVER 56.5 No. 8 Nebraska at No. 7 Wisconsin
Idaho +16 at Virginia

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WEEK 4 HANDICAPPING (2-1; 7-5 overall)
Wins
Kansas State +12.5 in a 28-24 win at Miami
OVER 43 in Florida 48, Kentucky 10

Loss
Tulane +10 in a 48-27 loss at Duke 

A Happy & Healthy New Year to all those who celebrate!

Great finish to the college football season last night.

Again, I'd like to point out my comment from my Week 2 picks on Sept. 9:
"No. 21 Auburn over Mississippi State (Tigers my sleeper of the year)"

And of course -- well not really, based on my season record -- I picked Auburn to win last night. Dodd was the only expert to do so (maybe all the experts except for Chip Patterson should be replaced next season).

I was completely wrong on the high-score prediction. I had a feeling it would be low scoring heading into the game, but much easier to say after the fact. Hope no one got burnt on playing the over.

FINAL Expert Picks standings
Bowls: Patterson 22-13, Jacobi 19-16, Darst 18-17, me 18-17, Dodd 18-17 & Horowitz 17-18
Overall: Patterson 258-81, Darst 252-87, me 248-91, Dodd 245-94, Jacobi 244-95 & Horowitz 239-100

Underdog moneyline strategy
Had you followed this theory, you would have been ahead 112.8 units. And to think it started out 0-5.

Remember I said not to play any games of this theory after Dec. 31 (No underdogs won outright after this date). But if you want to know the final tally for all the bowls, here you go:

Underdog moneyline strategy
0-1/-10: New Mexico: BYU wins as FAV vs. UTEP (+320)
0-2/-10/Total -20: Humanitarian: Northern Illinois wins as FAV vs. Fresno State (+111)
0-3/-10/Total -30: New Orleans: Troy wins as FAV vs. Ohio (+110)
0-4/-10/Total -40: Beef O’Brady’s: Louisville wins as FAV vs. So. Miss (+120)
0-5/-10/Total -50: Poinsettia: San Diego St. wins as FAV vs. Navy (+130)
DNP: Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State wins as FAV vs. Utah (+550)
1-5/+31/Total -19: Hawaii: Tulsa (+310) wins as DOG vs. Hawaii
DNP:  Little Caesars: FIU opened as DOG, wins as FAV vs. Toledo
1-6/-10/Total -29: Independence: Air Force wins as FAV vs. Ga. Tech (+125)
2-6/+13/Total -16: Champs Sports: N.C. State (+130) wins as DOG vs. West Virginia
3-6/+13/Total -3: Insight: Iowa (+130) wins as DOG vs. Missouri
3-7/-10/Total -13: Military: Maryland wins as FAV vs. East Carolina (+270)
DNP: Texas: Illinois opens as DOG, wins as FAV vs. Baylor
3-8/-10/Total -23: Alamo: Oklahoma State wins as FAV vs. Arizona (+170)
4-8/+25/Total: +2: Armed Forces: Army (+250) wins as DOG vs. SMU
5-8/+10.3/Total +12.3: Pinstripe: Syracuse (+103) wins as DOG vs. Kansas State
DNP: Music City: North Carolina wins as PICK vs. Tennessee
6-8/+39/Total +51.3: Holiday: Washington (+390) wins as DOG vs. Nebraska
7-8/+17/Total +68.3: Meineke Car Care: South Florida (+170) wins as DOG vs. Clemson
8-8/+11.5/Total +79.8: Sun: Notre Dame (+115) wins as DOG vs. Miami
9-8/+21/Total +100.8: Liberty: UCF (+210) wins as DOG vs. Georgia
10-8/+12/Total +112.8: Chick-Fil-A: FSU (+120) wins as DOG vs. South Carolina
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10-9/-10/+92.8: TicketCity: Texas Tech wins as FAV vs. Northwestern (+250)
10-10/-10/+82.8: Outback: Florida wins as FAV vs. Penn State (+210)
10-11/-10/+72.8: Capital One: Alabama wins as FAV vs. Michigan State (+250)
10-12/-10/+62.8: Gator: Mississippi State wins as FAV vs. Michigan (+145)
10-13/-10/+52.8: Rose: TCU wins as FAV vs. Wisconsin (+130)
10-14/-10/+42.8: Fiesta: Oklahoma wins as FAV vs. Connecticut (+520)
10-15/-10/+32.8: Orange: Stanford wins as FAV vs. Virginia Tech (+155)
10-16/-10/+22.8: Sugar: Ohio State wins as FAV vs. Arkansas (+130)
DNP: Go Daddy.com: Miami (Oh) opens as FAV, wins as DOG vs. Middle Tennessee State
10-17/-10/+12.8: Cotton: LSU wins as FAV vs. Texas A&M (+110)
10-18/-10/+2.8: BBVA Compass: Pittsburgh wins as FAV vs. Kentucky (+165)
10-19/-10/-7.2: Fight Hunger: Nevada wins as FAV vs. Boston College (+250)
DNP: Title game: Auburn opens as FAV, wins as PICK vs. Oregon

Thanks to those who often checked in. I was stunned to see each weekly blog received over 1,000 views and the Bowls pix blog received over 17,000 views. Maybe some of you were checking in to see who not to bet on, but I hoped some of the information helped.

Enjoy the offseason -- and feel free to check out CBSSports.com's baseball coverage through the year as that is my primary job here.

JR

Are you ready for the Bowl Season? First kickoff is less than 16 hours away.

Even though I failed to defend my regular-season title among the experts, I look to bounce back with my bowl picks … but I have always struggled this time of year. You never know what team will show up; if a team is so bummed it's not playing in a bigger bowl (See Alabama) and isn't as focused as it should be.

But below, I'm making my picks anyway. More importantly, I'd like to point out my underdog moneyline strategy, which I will keep an updated scorecard for on the comment part of this blog.

The idea: Play the moneyline on the underdog for every bowl through Dec. 30. In the picks below, I list the moneyline in parentheses from scoresandodds.com.

Ex: BYU over UTEP (+320) means, even though I'm picking BYU to win to help my standings vs. the experts, I'm suggesting to play UTEP at +320 to win outright. I will keep records for my picks and the underdog moneylines for all the games. But I don't like the underdog moneylines after Dec. 30.

Some games won't have a +moneyline next to it, because there isn't one if the game is virtually a pick 'em.

Before getting to my winners below, a quick reminder of the Expert Picks regular-season standings: Chip Patterson 236-68, Darst 234-70, me 230-74, Dodd 2227-77, Jacobi 225-79 & Horowitz 222-82.

HANDICAPPING
As for my regular-season suggestions, I finished 19-23-1. I know, not good, but we'll get three of them back on Day 1 as I like the lines on all three games (UTEP +11½, Northern Illinois -1½ & Ohio +2).

There are a total of seven games I like. Add Central Florida +6½, Michigan State +9½, TCU-Wisconsin over of 58½ and Kentucky +3½.

If there are any more that pop up, I'll post on the comment board of this blog.

Good luck and have a happy holiday & bowl season.

THE WINNERS
SATURDAY, DEC. 18
New Mexico:  BYU over UTEP (+320) – Take the 11½ points
Humanitarian: Northern Illinois over Fresno State (+114) – Lay the 1½ 
New Orleans: Ohio (+110) over Troy – Take the 2 points

TUESDAY, DEC. 21
Beef O'Brady's:  Southern Mississippi (+120) over Louisville

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 22
Maaco: Boise State over Utah (+485) 

THURSDAY, DEC. 23
Poinsettia: San Diego State over Navy (+165)

FRIDAY, DEC. 24
Hawaii: Hawaii over Tulsa (+305)

SUNDAY, DEC. 26
Little Caesars: Florida International (+108) over Toledo

MONDAY, DEC. 27
Independence: Air Force over Georgia Tech (+125)

TUESDAY, DEC. 28
Champs Sports: West Virginia over North Carolina State (+125)
Insight: Missouri over Iowa (+108)

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 29
Military: East Carolina (+240) over Maryland
Texas: Baylor over Illinois (+110)
Alamo: Arizona (+175) over Oklahoma State

THURSDAY, DEC. 30
Armed Forces: SMU over Army (+250)
Pinstripe: Kansas State over Syracuse
Music City: Tennessee (+110) over North Carolina
Holiday: Nebraska over Washington (+400)

FRIDAY, DEC. 31
Meineke Car Care: Clemson over South Florida (+170)
Sun: Notre Dame (+125) over Miami
Liberty: Georgia over Central Florida (+210) – Take the 6½ points
Chick-Fil-A: South Carolina over Florida State (+135)

SATURDAY, JAN. 1, 2011
TicketCity: Texas Tech over Northwestern (+300)
Outback: Florida over Penn State (+250)
Capital One: Alabama over Michigan State (+310) – Take the 9½ points
Gator: Mississippi State over Michigan (+170)
Rose: Wisconsin 36 (+120), TCU 28 – Play the over of 58½
Fiesta: Oklahoma 42, Connecticut 13 (+475)

MONDAY, JAN. 3
Orange: Stanford 38, Virginia Tech 30 (+140)

TUESDAY, JAN. 4
Sugar: Ohio State 31, Arkansas 24 (+145)

THURSDAY, JAN. 6
Go Daddy.com: Miami of Ohio over Middle Tennessee State

FRIDAY, JAN. 7
Cotton: LSU over Texas A&M (+101)

SATURDAY, JAN. 8
BBVA Compass: Kentucky (+145) over Pittsburgh – Take the 3½ points

SUNDAY, JAN. 9
Fight Hunger: Nevada over Boston College (+310)

MONDAY, JAN. 10
BCS title game: Auburn 43, Oregon 38 (+135)

I went 17-3 in Week 12. My losses were Iowa (over Ohio State), Miami (over Va. Tech) and San Diego State (over Utah).

The Hawkeyes should have stuck to the power run game, but I'll take a Buckeyes victory any day … even if I picked against them.

My overall record is now 206-64, but with Chip Patterson going 18-2, I lost another game in the standings to him and trail the leader by five games.

Overall standings for the Experts: Chip 211-59, Darst 207-63, me 206-64, Jacobi 201-69, Dodd 200-70 & Horowitz 195-75. I don't know if I can catch Chip to successfully defend my title, but getting past Darst shouldn’t be a problem.

Note: My original Week 12 post had me picking Northwestern (over Illinois) and Utah (over SDSU), but I audibled and posted my changes before those games started.

On to Week 13

THURSDAY
No. 17 Texas A&M 35, Texas 29 (Play the over of 47½)

FRIDAY
No. 1 Oregon 45, No. 20 Arizona 23
No. 9 Alabama 33, No. 2 Auburn 27 (Lay the 4½)
No. 3 Boise State 49, No. 19 Nevada 35
No. 16 Nebraska over Colorado
Pittsburgh over West Virginia

SATURDAY
No. 4 TCU over New Mexico (Play the over of 43½)
No. 5 Wisconsin over Northwestern (Play the over of 57½)
No. 12 Arkansas 33, over No. 6 LSU 32 (Play the over of 54½)
No. 7 Stanford over Oregon State
No. 8 Ohio State 45, Michigan 21 (Does RichRod get fired afterward?)

No. 14 Oklahoma 38, No. 10 Oklahoma State 33
Penn State 30, No. 11 Michigan State 20 (Take the 1½)
No. 13 Virginia Tech over Virginia
No. 15 Missouri over Kansas
No. 18 South Carolina over Clemson

Maryland over No. 21 North Carolina State
No. 22 Florida State over Florida
BYU over No. 23 Utah
No. 24 Iowa over Minnesota
Mississippi 28, No. 25 Mississippi State 27

Georgia over Georgia Tech
Notre Dame 28, USC 24

Additional handicapping suggestion
Play over of 53½ in Indiana at Purdue

WEEK 12 HANDICAPPING (2-1-1)

Wins: Over of 48 (closed at 51) in Michigan State 35, Purdue 31; Taking Mississippi +15 (close at 14½) in LSU 43, Ole Miss 36
Loss: Over of 60½ in Nevada 52, New Mexico State 6
Push: Taking Iowa +3 in OSU 20, Iowa 17

Unfortunately, I called off playing Utah -2½, so the 2-1-1 showing makes me 16-19-1 on the year.

Happy Thanksgiving, all.

Wow. I just keep getting worse. I went 14-10 last week. I'm completely embarrassed.

This drops my overall record to 189-61, falling two more games behind Chip Patterson among the Expert Pickers.

Overall standings: Chip 193-57, Darst 192-58, me 189-61, Adam 186-64, Dodd 183-67 & Horowitz 180-70. I'd like to point out Jay went 20-5 for the week.

I lost on Georgia (to Auburn), Arizona State (to Stanford), Iowa (to Northwestern), Utah (to Notre Dame), Florida (to South Carolina), Baylor (to Texas A&M) UCF (to Southern Miss), Rutgers (to Syracuse) & Ga. Tech (to Miami).

I’m running out of time to successfully defend my title.

As for the big game for me & my Buckeye friends, I just don't see how the Buckeyes win in Iowa City. If the Hawkeyes realize they can run the ball up the middle, our Bucks are in trouble.

Ohio State hasn't had to face too many power teams and when it did, the Bucks had trouble (See Wisconsin & Penn State's first half). I hope I'm wrong, but I have to pick Iowa.

Now to Week 12

THURSDAY
No. 10 Alabama over Georgia State

FRIDAY
No. 3 Boise State over Fresno State

SATURDAY
No. 5 LSU over Mississippi (Take the 16 points)
No. 6 Wisconsin over Michigan
No. 7 Stanford over California
No. 21 Iowa 27, No. 8 Ohio State 24 (Take the 3 points)
No. 18 Texas A&M 30, No. 9 Nebraska 28

No. 11 Michigan State over Purdue (Play over of 48)
No. 12 Oklahoma State over Kansas
No. 13 Arkansas 33, No. 22 Mississippi State 23
No. 24 Miami 28, No. 14 Virginia Tech 27
No. 15 Missouri over Iowa State

No. 16 Oklahoma over Baylor
No. 17 South Carolina over Troy
No. 19 Nevada over New Mexico State (Play over of 61½)
Oregon State over No. 20 Southern Cal
No. 25 Utah over San Diego State (Lay the 2½)

Pittsburgh over South Florida
Northwestern over Illinois
Florida State over Maryland

WEEK 11 HANDICAPPING (1-6)
I said play the over of 63 in Boise State 54, Idaho 12, but the line, which opened at 61½, closed at 67½, so I won't count it as a win or loss.

Losses: Laying the points in TCU 40, San Diego State 35 (closed at 28); Taking the points in LSU 51, La.-Monroe 0 (closed at 33); Over of 61 in Nebraska 20, Kansas 3 (closed at 60); Taking Baylor (+3) in Texas A&M 42, Baylor 30; Taking the points (Ga. Tech +3) in Miami 35, Ga. Tech 10 (ouch!).

Also said take Rutgers (+3) in Syracuse 13, Rutgers 10. It closed at 2.5. My conscious says to count as a loss, so I will.

My one win: Over of 68½ in Nevada 35, Fresno State 34

This unfortunately makes me 14-18 for the season after going 2-10 the past two weeks.

Obviously, time to turn it around. 

I went 14-7 in Week 10. I know. Not good. Not good at all.

I lost (bad) on Utah over TCU. The Horned Frogs have proved to me they’re one of the best teams in the country. I lost on Alabama (to LSU), Oklahoma (to Texas A&M), Missouri (to Texas Tech), South Carolina (to Arkansas), Florida State (to North Carolina) and Texas (to Kansas State).

Against the Experts, I remain three back of Chip Patterson (177-48 overall), while Darst was the big mover of the week, going 16-5 and tying me with an overall mark of 174-51 The rest: Jacobi 170-55, Dodd 166-59 & Horowitz 160-65.

On to Week 10

FRIDAY
No. 4 Boise State over Idaho (Play the over of 63)

SATURDAY
No. 1 Oregon over California
Georgia 31, No. 2 Auburn 30 (Newton news will be a big enough distraction)
No. 3 TCU over San Diego State (Lay the 26.5)
No. 5 LSU over Louisiana-Monroe (Take the 32.5)
No. 6 Wisconsin over Indiana

Arizona State 38, No. 7 Stanford 31
No. 8 Ohio State over Penn State
No. 9 Nebraska over Kansas (Play the over of 61)
No. 11 Alabama 31, No. 17 Mississippi State 10
No. 12 Oklahoma State over Texas

No. 13 Iowa 33, Northwestern 27
No. 14 Arkansas over UTEP
No. 15 Utah 32, Notre Dame 23
No. 16 Virginia Tech 23, North Carolina 20
No. 18 Arizona over Southern Cal

No. 19 Oklahoma over Texas Tech
No. 20 Missouri over Kansas State
No. 21 Nevada over Fresno State (Play the over of 68.5)
No. 25 Florida 31, No. 22 South Carolina 21
Baylor 40, No. 23 Texas A&M 37 (Take the 3)
No. 25 UCF over Southern Miss

Rutgers over Syracuse (Take 3)
Georgia Tech over Miami (Take 3)
Tulsa over Houston (Enjoy watching the over of 76, but not a suggested play)

WEEK 10 HANDICAPPING ROUNDUP (1-4)
My deepest apologies … and glad I wasn’t in Vegas.

I thought for sure Oklahoma (closed at -5) would trounce Texas A&M. Guess not as Sooners lost 33-19. I liked Nebraska (closed at -6) over Texas Tech, which won 24-17.

Lost on unders of TCU 47, Utah 7 (closed at 51½) & Oklahoma State 55, Baylor 28 (closed at 72½ -- OK State led 24-0 at the half; Doh!).

My one correct pick was North Carolina +10½ at FSU. The Heels won 37-35.

Let's see how my eight suggested plays fare this week.