both totals that I was following stayed under the number again , including Lakers/Okc ,I only played the lower numbered total because it dropped from 179 to 177 despite 70% on the over I regret seeing a break in the action cause its throwing things out of whack but really looking forward to the coming weeks
NBA Trends & Angles February 23, 2012
We have already reached the NBA All-Star break, but don't expect us to break out any post-All-Star angles from years past as this strike shortened season in not like past years.
In fact, the multiple days off over the break is a rarity this season, as some teams have had back-to-back days off no more than once all year to this point. To wit, all NBA teams playing with at least two days off are 55-45-1, 55.0 percent against the spread this season, which demonstrates both how relatively few times it has happened and how appreciative the teams have been on those rare occasions with multiple off days.
Now this in itself does not give us an edge in the first game out of the break, since every team in the league fits the angle. However, as you will see from our feature angle this week, take note of which teams lose their final game before the break. Remember that all NBA records presented here this year are for this season only, as our goal is to isolate angles that work best in this year's special post-lockout environment Play on any team coming off of at least two days off that lost its last game straight up (29-19, 60.4% ATS): While all teams are hitting at 55 percent after multiple days off, those stewing after a loss have apparently made good use of the days off and have retuned chomping at the bit. This angle has worked especially well for road teams the first half of this season, as the travelers are 17-6, 73.9 percent ATS following a loss and a couple of days off. While there are still four games pending on Thursday night, there are six teams that open up the second half of the season on the road and that have already concluded the first half with a loss. Five of these teams play Tuesday night in the Boston Celtics, New Jersey Nets, Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards. The sixth team, the Charlotte Bobcats, opens up its second half on Wednesday night.
Play on all Western Conference home teams in non-conference games (48-31-1, 60.8% ATS): We mentioned a few weeks ago that Western Conference home teams have done well this season, and one of the reasons was because teams from other time zones have not had as much time to adapt to the time change due to the tighter schedule. If our theory is correct that slow adaptation to time change is part of the reason, then it stands to reason that this West home angle should work best vs. Eastern Conference teams, and as you can see, this has indeed continued to be the case even as the sample size is starting to increase. Play the 'under' in all conference games when playing with no rest (128-81-2, 61.2%): Just as in other sports, conference games are more important than non-conference games in terms of tiebreakers at the end of the season, so while teams tend to play more loosely when playing out of conference, they generally play things closer to the vest in conference games with more on the line. Add in the added variable of playing with no rest during a condensed schedule, and the 'under' percentage sneaks over 61 percent this year. We introduced this angle three weeks ago and it has gone a nice 45-25, 64.3 percent since then. There are obviously no qualifying plays when the games resume after the break on Tuesday, but the following 'unders' will qualify on Wednesday: Milwaukee at Boston, Cleveland at New York, Dallas at Memphis, Charlotte at Detroit, Houston at Utah, Minnesota at the Lakers and Orlando at Washington. Play against any home team coming off of three or more home games (29-19-1, 60.4% ATS): Yes this is a small sample size, but with all of our ATS angles seemingly favoring home teams, we feel it is worth keeping an eye on this angle favoring road teams just for the sake of balance. While being home has been huge for the most part with the tight schedule this season, one exception has been that teams have tended to become complacent in the latter stages of long home stands, and that is what we are looking to take advantage of here. Home fades continuing long home stands on Tuesday night that should be played against are the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets
Bet against any road team coming off of a home game with no rest (54-38, 58.7% ATS): One side effect of a condensed schedule is that home court advantage is bigger than ever, as not having to go on the road cuts down on the fatigue factor even with games cramped together tightly. This angle takes advantage of teams leaving the comforts of home and hitting the road, and playing a back-to-back and in some cases in this strike shortened season even a back-to-back-to-back has added to the fatigue factor. This angle has performed well even as the volume of plays has increased. There are no plays Tuesday, but qualifying fades for Wednesday night are the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks.
Play on any conference home favorite coming off of an ATS loss (65-40, 61.9% ATS): This angle has worked well in previous years also, but not to this extreme! Teams like nothing more than to bounce back from sloppy performances, and it is much easier to do so as a favorite playing at home, especially facing a conference opponent that a team is familiar with. This angle continues to roll along going 9-4 ATS over the past seven days. The following four teams are home on Tuesday night after failing to cover their final game before the break and should be played on only if they are favored: the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks
3 small plays tonight...too stooopid to stay away on friday
Butler -1.5 -110 W Virginia -1.5 -110 Yale ml/Iona ml +100
but really looking forward to the coming weeks
